“In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.”
This was the quote that Edmonton Economic Development Corporation President & CEO, Ron Gilbertson, used to describe Edmonton’s unique position in the current world of economic chaos. Ron was a keynote speaker at the Edmonton Real Estate Association’s 2009 housing forecast, held January 8th at the Shaw Conference Centre, and is the only reason I personally attended. In my books, Ron has a track record of bringing keen insight to the table from his regular talks with business & political leaders around the world, and any chance I get to hear what’s new from his mouth, I take. There was also free breakfast . . .
You can view his entire powerpoint presentation here, but here are a few highlights pertaining to Edmonton’s industrial scene. At the end of 2008 Edmonton has:
- Second lowest unemployment rate in Canada.
- Fifth highest full-time employment in Canada.
- Fifth lowest consumer bankruptcy rate.
- #1 lowest business bankruptcy rate.
The stats I found especially valuable were regarding the major spending planned for Alberta. There has been much hoopla around “cancelled” upgraders & related oilfield projects in the media, however, here’s the real data thus far.
Alberta Major Projects (in millions):
- Total Projects: $270,727
- Oil & Gas: $7,882
- Oilsands: $163,203
- Delayed Projects (not cancelled): $98,600
- Value of Remaining Projects: $172,127
That final number, is a number that entire countries would be jealous of, let alone a province. There are pro’s and cons to every market situation. Ron has met with many of the business leaders in the province’s energy sector, and for many of them, the economic slowdown is a welcome relief, slowing down inflationary pressures, the quickly rising infrastructure and construction costs. The other welcomed benefit to a slowdown is that the pinch on the labour market can relax. Employers will hopefully have an easier time attracting & retaining skilled labour.
With a currently *estimated* three decades of conventional oil supply remaining, Alberta’s proven oil reserves are second only to Saudi Arabia, and are the world’s largest politically stable source (even the coalition hasn’t been able to change that . . .).
The biggest issue remaining for Albertans is not our economic future, there are opportunities that abound for those with the vision to run with it. Instead, it is going to be related to our plan for the sustainable development of our assets. More eyes will be turned this way as Alberta continues toward its status of a worldwide energy superpower – I hope our decision makers are able to look beyond short term crises, get a bird’s eye view of changing world currents and create something truly valuable for our kids, and beyond.
